China has suspended rare earth exports in retaliation to President Trump’s recent tariff hikes. The trade war is starting to get real, as Beijing produces around 90% of the world’s rare earths ( 70% of global REE mining and 87% of global REE refining). There are significant strategic ramifications to this action and it raises tensions between the world’s two largest economies considerably.
The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow 400-600% over the next few decades. Global magnet rare earth oxide consumption alone is expected to increase by 200% by the end of the decade, and more than five-fold by 2040 at $44 billion.
This wider suspension of exports comes just 9 days after China initially imposed restrictions on the export of six heavy rare earth elements. These metals and magnets come from Africa and other places, but are refined exclusively in China.
The ban applies to exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for everything including cars, semiconductors, aerospace and military hardware such as jets, missiles and drones. Complicating matters, this export ban comes as supply disruptions have increased from the ongoing conflict in major supplier Myanmar.
China’s banning of rare earth exports is likely to make prices climb higher. During 2010 when China halted REE exports to Japan over a territorial dispute, the global prices spiked as much at 10x! When combining this new ban with already restricted from Myanmar, I think we are likely to see prices spike higher once again.
President Trump is drafting an executive order to enable the stockpiling of critical metals from the Pacific Ocean seabed, in an effort to counter China’s dominance of battery minerals and rare earth supply chains. Trump already has invoked emergency powers to boost the ability of the U.S. to produce critical minerals as part of a broad effort to ramp up the development of domestic natural resources to reduce reliance on imports from China and elsewhere. Part of this plan is to build metal refining facilities on military bases.
In addition to benefiting from higher rare earth prices, U.S.-based rare earth miners are likely to benefit from increased government support in the form of grants, low-interest loans and the fast-tracking of permits and licenses. This is necessary for the United States strategically to have domestic supplies of critical metals that are needed for our economy and military, especially if China’s export ban has longevity.
Given the bullish outlook above, here are 3 stocks that I think will benefit from China’s export ban on rare earth elements:
- MP Materials (MP) – The largest rare earth producer in the United States with the Mountain Pass Mine in California. It is the only rare-earth mining and processing facility in the United States. MP’s capabilities span the entire supply chain—from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. The company was awarded $58.5 million 48C tax credit from the government to advance the construction of America’s first fully integrated rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas. This comes after a $10 million grant in 2020 and $35 million grant in 2022. MP Materials delivered record production in 2024 while advancing key strategic initiatives in midstream and magnetics operations. Revenue for Q4 2024 reached $61M, up 48% year-over-year, driven by increased sales of separated rare earth products. The valuation is still high relative to peers and profit margins are weak with Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.12. The share price is up 81% year-to-date as of April 16th.
- Rare Element Resources (REEMF) – The Bear Lodge Project area is a significant mineralized district that contains one of the largest disseminated rare earth deposits in North America. This deposit contains many of the less common, more valuable rare earths and Rare Element Resources owns 100% of the Project. During the last few years, the company has been advancing their proprietary extraction/separation technology and have successfully produced commercial-grade neodymium/praseodymium (Nd/Pr) oxide in pilot-plant testing. These materials are key components to the fast-growing, permanent magnet sector. The next step will be operations of a demonstration plant, which is currently under construction in Upton, WY. Results generated from operating this plant will be used for the design and economic evaluation of a commercial rare earth processing facility. Both the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Wyoming Energy Authority (WEA) have shown their support for the Project through funding of over $26M for the demonstration plant. In March, they received a non-binding Letter of Interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States to provide a portion of debt financing of up to $553 million for the Bear Lodge Project development’s total capital expansion. Shares are up 175% year-to-date in 2025.
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USA Rare Earth (USAR) – The company is building a sintered neo magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, OK which is currently planned to go commercial in the first half of 2026. At full capacity, this facility will be able to produce nearly 5,000 metric tons, or hundreds of millions of magnets, annually. They will serve a variety of fast-growing industries, such as defense, robotics, electric vehicles, wind power, appliances, cordless tools and even computing and semiconductors. The company’s Innovations Lab is being commissioned currently and will begin prototyping to customers this quarter (Q2, 2025). They have developed a proprietary Continuous Ion Exchange process for rare earth and critical mineral separation and have offtake agreements in place with partners in the United States and South Korea. Their unique Round Top deposit in West Texas hosts 15 of the 17 rare earth elements, including all heavy rare earth elements, as well as other high-tech metals such as gallium, hafnium, zirconium, beryllium and lithium. Long-term, the company intends to use the ore processed from this deposit in the magnet facility in Oklahoma. USA Rare Earth owns 80% of the Round Top deposit with Texas Mineral Resources Corp (TMRC) owning the other 20%. I covered TMRC in this 2023 article published on Seeking Alpha. USAR is up 33% year-to-date and TMRC is up 145% year-to- date in 2025. US Rare Earth also has warrants listed under USARW that are up 165% in the past 5 days alone!
Bonus Pick:
While not technically a rare earth element, Antimony has seen its price rise significantly due to supply constraints, similar to rare earth elements. China controls over 90% of the world’s antimony production, leading to concerns about supply security and price volatility. In December 2024, China banned exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States. The global supply of antimony is tightening at a time when demand is accelerating – driven by renewed defense initiatives and the global energy transition.
United States Antimony (UAMY) is the only US producer of antimony and is positioned to benefit from rising demand in defense, EV batteries, and flame retardants. They are increasing raw material supply of antimony from third parties around the world, along with staking its own claims for over 32,000 acres to reactivate U.S. historical antimony deposits and secure a fully domestic antimony supply chain. USAC operates the only significant antimony smelter in the United States and it is in a “sold out” condition. The company has proven experience in underground and open pit mining, flotation and gravimetric milling, crushing and screening, dry grinding, cyanide leaching, precious metal refining, pyro-metallurgy, and marketing. Operations include a smelter and a precious metal refinery in Montana, and a smelter and three mills in Mexico. They highlighted record revenues of $14.9 million for fiscal 2024, a 72% increase year-over-year, accompanied by a 204% growth in gross profit. The share price is up 95% year to date in 2025. Just yesterday, B. Riley Securities, Inc. raised their price target on UAMY from $3.00 to $5.00. It is currently trading at $3.45.
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